The next update will be available November 16.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updates the three-month outlook each month. The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. NOAA’s seasonal outlooks provide the likelihood that temperatures and total precipitation amounts will be above-, near- or below-average, and how drought conditions are anticipated to change in the months ahead. Drought is likely to persist or develop across Hawaii.Drought development could occur in the interior Pacific Northwest given the chance for drier-than-average conditions.Drought conditions are expected to persist for the northern Rockies, northern Great Plains, and portions of the desert Southwest this winter.Drought conditions are expected to improve across the Southeast, the Gulf Coast (including the lower Mississippi Valley), and Texas due to the expected wetter-than-average forecast.Widespread extreme to exceptional drought continues to persist across much of the South, and portions of the central U.S.falls into the category of equal chances for below-, near-, or above-average seasonal total precipitation. Much of the central portion of the U.S.The greatest odds for drier-than-average conditions are forecast in portions of the northern Rockies and central Great Lakes region, especially for Michigan and northern Ohio and Indiana.Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in northern Alaska, some areas of the West from parts of California to the south-central Rockies, the southern Plains, Gulf Coast, Southeast and lower mid-Atlantic.Remaining areas fall into the category of equal chances for below-, near-, or above-average seasonal mean temperatures.Near-normal seasonal mean temperatures are most likely for a region from the south-central Rockies to the southern Plains.The greatest odds for warmer-than-average conditions are in Alaska, the Pacific Northwest and northern New England.Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored across the northern tier of the U.S.Drought is likely to develop or intensify across the northern Rockies, northern Great Plains, portions of the desert Southwest, and the interior Pacific Northwest this winter. Large areas of the United States are expected to see drought improvements over the coming winter (light brown, green). NOAA forecasters, in collaboration with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), continue to monitor extreme, ongoing drought conditions that have persisted through the southern and central U.S. “An enhanced southern jet stream and associated moisture often present during strong El Niño events supports high odds for above-average precipitation for the Gulf Coast, lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast states this winter,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. White areas mean equal chances for all three possible outcomes. Out of three possible precipitation outcomes for the coming winter-much wetter than average, much drier than average, or near average-NOAA Climate Prediction Center's outlook for December-February says that odds are leaning toward a much drier than average winter for northern states from the Great Lakes to eastern Washington and toward a much wetter than average winter across the South, with the highest odds of a relatively wet winter in the Southeast. “With a strengthening El Niño and more potential climate extremes in an already record-breaking year, we’re lucky to have scientists like those at the Climate Prediction Center helping to build a Weather and Climate-Ready Nation by providing critical operational seasonal climate predictions.”įrom December through February, NOAA predicts wetter-than-average conditions for northern Alaska, portions of the West, the southern Plains, Southeast, Gulf Coast and lower mid-Atlantic and drier-than-average conditions across the northern tier of the U.S., especially in the northern Rockies and High Plains and near the Great Lakes. “These outlooks provide critical guidance on the upcoming season for many industries and sectors of our economy, from energy producers to commodities markets to agricultural interests to tourism,” said Sarah Kapnick, Ph.D., NOAA chief scientist. Gray areas mean near-average temperatures are a little more likely than either warmer- or cooler-than-average temperatures. White areas have equal chances for a relatively cool, warm, or average winter.
According to NOAA Climate Prediction Center's outlook for December-February 2023-24, the chances of a warmer-than-average winter (orange and red) are higher than the chances of a cooler-than-average winter across much of the northern part of the country, including Alaska, and most of Hawaii.